'Shadow CIA' Stratfor
Claims EU, Russia Will Fall Apart
Austin-based think tank Stratfor has
released its Decade Forecast 2015-2025,
predicting the imminent collapse of Russia
and the EU and the decline of China, while
the US and its allies flourish.
By Sputnik
March 09, 2015 "ICH"
- "Spuitnik"
- US-based global intelligence company
Stratfor has recently produced its fifth
quinquennial 'Decade Forecast: 2015-2025'
report, in which it makes a number of
shocking predictions about changes meant to
take place over the next ten years,
including the collapse of Russia and the
European Union, the decline of China, the
fragmentation of Middle Eastern nation
states, and the continuing reign of the
United States as the world's sole
superpower.Stratfor
begins its predictions over Russia's future
rather innocuously by stating that the
current conflict in Ukraine "will remain a
centerpiece of the international system
over the next few years." However, the
agency soon moves to 1990s-style commentary,
boldly predicting the imminent collapse
of Russia, noting that "we do not think the
Russian Federation can exist in its current
form for the entire decade." Stratfor argues
that fluctuations in energy prices will
reduce "Moscow's ability to support the
national infrastructure," resulting in the
fraying of "economic ties binding the
Russian periphery."
The agency predicts that
as Russia weakens, territories traditionally
in the Russian sphere of influence and
pieces of Russia itself will break off and
join other powers. This includes Belarus and
Ukraine being 'brought into the fold'
of Poland, Hungary and Romania, while
Karelia strives to join Finland, Russian
control over the North Caucasus evaporates,
Central Asia is destabilized and the Russian
Far East seeks to "move independently"
toward links to China, Japan and the US.
Stratfor argues that the
biggest challenge for the US when it comes
to the collapse of Russia revolves
around rouge nuclear missiles ending up in
the hands of unstable states. The agency
notes that the US will be forced "to invent
a military solution," or to "try to create a
stable and viable government in the regions
involved to neutralize the missiles
over time."
The intelligence company
made similar predictions with regard
to Russia in reports published since 1996.
The overall tone of the report in regards
to the country seems to contradict earlier
statements made by George Friedman,
Stratfor's founder and CEO. Friedman
recently noted in a discussion on the
Russian economic decline that "Russians'
strength [stems from the fact] that they can
endure things that would break other
nations." Furthermore, the country "has
military and political power that could
begin to impinge on Europe."
Along With Russia,
United Europe Too Set to Collapse
Along with its dire
predictions about the future of Russia,
Stratfor also anticipates the
destabilization and possible collapse of the
European Union over the next decade. Arguing
that northern, Mediterranean, Western and
Eastern European states have conflicting
interests which may prove irreconcilable,
the report notes that collapse may come
about because "no single policy can suit all
of Europe." If the organization is
to survive, "it will operate in a more
limited and fragmented way in the next
decade." The report predicts the return
of nationalism, the rise of protectionism
and capital controls, and restrictions
on the movement of foreigners. The report
also argues that Germany stands to lose the
most in the coming decline, the loss
in export markets expected to result in a
protracted economic decline, which in turn
will lead to a "domestic social and
political crisis." With German decline,
Stratfor argues that Poland, allied to the
United States, will become "the dominant
power on the strategic Northern European
Plain."
Mid-East States to Decline, Turkey to Rise,
Chinese 'Dictatorship' to Intensify
In the Middle East,
Stratfor argues that the continuing
destabilization and breakdown
of nation-states in the Middle East and
northern Africa will be tempered by the rise
of Turkey, which is expected to expand its
role. As the only state with "the means
to at least achieve limited success in the
region," Turkey is expected to ally more
closely with the US, receiving political and
military benefits in exchange for
"participation in the containment
of Russia." The report argues that
as Russian geopolitical power recedes in the
northern Black Sea area, Turkey may become
involved in "projecting its power northward
certainly commercially and politically
but also potentially in some measured
military way."
As for Asia, Stratfor
predicts "political and social challenges"
for China as it ceases "to be a high-growth,
low-wage economy," noting that Beijing's
"dictatorial tendencies" are likely
to expand, ultimately resulting in a
communist "dictatorial state couple
with more modest economic expectations."
China is expected to challenge Japan
for control of Russia's maritime interests
in the event that the country fragments.
It's worth noting that in the
agency's 1996-2005 forecast, it expected
China to suffer "growing instability,
including the strong possibility
of fragmentation and civil war."
Ultimately, US
to Remain World's Sole Global Superpower
Stratfor predicts that
as its global competitors decline and/or
fragment, "the United States will continue
to be the major economic, political and
military power in the world, but will be
less engaged than in the past." The report
notes that in the coming decade, the US will
choose to use its power more selectively,
focusing its gaze on North America. With
dropping global exports, growing energy
independence and following lessons
from foreign policy mistakes made earlier,
the US role as "first responder" will
decline, according to the agency. In an
increasingly dangerous and unstable world,
Stratfor argues that "the one constant will
be the continued and maturing power of the
United States."
Stratfor, a think tank
sometimes referred to as "The Shadow CIA,"
employs among its ranks former CIA
intelligence analysts. Since 1996, the
company's 'Decade Forecast' reports have
been known for their optimistic appraisal
about the enduring power of the US on the
world stage, and for their predictions
about US geopolitical competitors being ripe
for decline and collapse. Since 2012, the
group has been embroiled in an embarrassing
WikiLeaks scandal following the leak of over
5.5 company million emails which revealed
cooperation with US government officials,
contracts targeting opponents of US
multinationals, and connections with dubious
groups such as the private security services
contractor Blackwater.