Iran is Ready to Crash
Pipelineistan
By Pepe Escobar
March 22, 2015 "ICH"
- "Asia
Times" -
Way beyond an Iran nuclear deal, and way
beyond the end of a nasty economic siege
that’s been in place for 35 years since the
Islamic Revolution, the coming Western
embrace means above all that Iran is now
ready to crash the chessboard I call
Pipelineistan.
http://tomdispatch.com/post/175050/pepe_escobar_welcome_to_pipelineistan
By the mid-2000s, one of the
top mantras of energy analysts in Iran and
across Asia was what was known as the Asian
Energy Security Grid. Translation: a
pan-Asian integration via energy flows of
the region’s oil and gas. Pipelineistan
connected these relevant dots in the
Eurasian chessboard.
Washington was always set
on stopping Pipelineistan in its tracks.
Case in point: the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC)
pipeline, a Dr. Zbig “Grand Chessboard”
Brzezinski brainchild that was built for
almost $6 billion as an explicit
geopolitical weapon to bypass Iran’s energy
exports.
Another example is frantic
efforts by both the Bush junior and Obama
administrations to derail the former
Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline, also
known as “peace pipeline”, which may
eventually be built and named IP – for
Iran-Pakistan.
Now it’s a completely
different story. Even U.S. Big Oil is
salivating at the prospect of doing business
with Iran on energy.
Beijing, for its part,
already is. Iran is invariably among
China’s top three energy sources. Not by
accident, Chinese President Xi Jinping will
soon visit Tehran; Foreign Minister Wang Yi
has already promised “dramatic”
announcements – and China’s Foreign Ministry
is not exactly prone to hyperbole. For
Beijing, the energy relationship with Tehran
is no less than a matter of national
security.
China also remains a top
client of Saudi oil. But buying oil from the
Persian Gulf and having it shipped via the
vulnerable Strait of Malacca is not exactly
Beijing’s idea of a bright future.
The vastly complex Chinese
energy strategy, bent on diversification of
sources, could be summarized as “escape from
Malacca”. And now, with ISIS/ISIL/Daesh
holding large – though mostly empty – parts
of “Syraq”, the Middle East as a whole
becomes even more of a problem.
Beijing is alarmed at the
growing possibility of a demented Caliphate
export contaminating large swathes of
Xinjiang – the key Chinese node of the
upcoming, overland New Silk Road.
The key branch of the
overland New Silk Road – the other one will
be via the Trans-Siberian – links China via
Xinjiang to Central Asia, Iran and Turkey.
So Beijing needs to
maintain excellent relations with both Iran
and Turkey. At the same time, it must avoid
antagonizing the House of Saud. In energy
terms, the ideal solution would be massive
investment in gas pipelines originating from
Iran and linked to Turkmenistan, which is
already linked to Western China via
pipelines built by the Chinese.
Even during the
Ahmadinejad years – via a “Look East” policy
– Iran was already going into overdrive to
make Pipelineistan a reality. This involved
courting China, India and Pakistan, by
keeping steady relations with Turkey.
The anticipated Asian
Energy Security Grid, in many aspects, is
already a go. Yet the big prize is, of
course, the EU. There is talk about forming
a Eurasia Security Grid.
For years, I’ve heard the
same mantra in Brussels: If only we could
buy loads of oil and gas from Iran to escape
the grip of Russia’s Gazprom – but the
Americans won’t let us.
The time is now. Euro Big
Energy is dying to hit the road to do
business with Tehran. The figure from eight
years ago, given to me by an Iranian energy
analyst, hasn’t changed much. IIran needs
roughly $200 billion to upgrade its energy
industry and start re-exporting oil en
masse.
So it’s no wonder Tehran’s
already holding close talks with Switzerland
and the EU to work out the initial details
of selling more gas to Europe. Hiking oil
exports – from currently 1.1 million barrels
a day to roughly 2 million – may also be
http://www.payvand.com/news/15/mar/1105.html
feasible. But to go
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-19/iran-can-add-million-barrels-of-oil-fast-but-needs-help-for-more
beyond that would take years and a veritable
tsunami of investment.
At the same time, the
major European players are willing and able
to make a geopolitical shift when it comes
to oil and gas. All (energy) roads now lead
to Tehran.
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