Syria: Negotiating Ethnic Cleansing And A
Temporary PartitionBy Moon Of
Alabama
August 05, 2015 "Information
Clearing House"
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"Moon
Of Alabama"
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The U.S. has
no interest to defeat the Islamic State or to end the conflict
in Syria and Iraq. Instead it is following a policy, successfully so
far, which
is designed to split Syria as well as Iraq into autonomous
statelets which later may or may not realign into loose
confederacies. There are now attempts to somewhat formalize that
situation.
Many of the recently
inserted 60 Pentagon trained mercenaries are by now captured,
wounded or dead. Last night Jabhat al-Nusra captured
another five of them. Mary Wheeler
thinks that the whole theater around these few idiots was
possibly just a fake to find a reason for the declaration of a U.S.
imposed no-fly zone over north Syria. An illegal invasion of Syria
to justify an even more illegal U.S. annexation of Syrian land and
air space.
Media accounts describe the 60 fighters as the
"first U.S. trained rebels". The 10,000 Syrian and foreign
mercenaries the CIA
trained and equipped since at least 2012 at a cost of $1 billion
per year are conveniently put down the memory hole. The many more
jihadis financed, trained and equipped by Jordan, Turkey, Saudi
Arabia and Qatar who went to join the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra
are also missing from such accounts. The media insist that the
whore's just born seventh child originates from an immaculate
conception.
The U.S. may, for now,
get its wish for a splintered Syria and Iraq. After four years
of a massive onslaught from outside actors the Syrian government is
no longer able to control all of the country. It needs to buy time
to recuperate resources and wait for a major change in international
policies. There has been a flurry of diplomacy recently, mostly
pushed by Russia, to somewhat formalize the current situation.
The chief of the Syrian intelligence was recently
in Saudi Arabia and the Saudi chief of intelligence will visit Syria
at the end of the month. The Russia foreign minister Lavrov met
several parties in Moscow and over the last two days in Doha. He
spoke with the Syrians, with Hamas, with the leader of the U.S.
proxy Syrian exile group, with Hizbullah, with Qatari and Saudi
liaisons to Jabhat al Nusra and the Islamic State as well as with
secretary of state Kerry. The Syrian foreign minister Muallem and
the Russian deputy foreign minister Bogdanov will soon touch down in
Tehran.
There are certainly some deeper discussion about
longer term issues going on but one of the more urgent negotiating
points is the fate of some 40,000 Shia Syrians in
two insurgent besieged towns just north of Idlib. These are
under daily artillery barrage from Nusra and other jihadi groups and
the humanitarian situation in Kafraya and Al-Fou’aa
is dire. The Syrian army currently supplies the towns by air and
local forces so far held off all attack but there is no way to
relief the towns from the ground and no longer term solution.
Meanwhile Hizbullah is besieging and operating against several
hundred jihadis in Zabadani near the Lebanese border. Unlike in
earlier operations Hizbullah will not let any of its enemies flee
from this cauldron.
A complicate deal is
in the making that would exchange the besieged 40,000 civilians
in Kafraya and Al-Fou’aa for the militants in Zabadani. Such a deal
would be a "negotiated ethnic cleansing". There are many parties
involved including Hizbullah and Jabhat al Nusra and the exchange
would take place under the supervision of the United Nations.
Nothing is fixed yet and transferring such a huge number of people
through enemy territory and lines will be difficult to achieve.
Should the deal go through and the evacuations
successfully executed a model would have been found that could then
be repeated in other areas. In the end some homogenous territories
would be defined, each under rule of one armed entity, and some of
the fighting over enclaves would die down.
But that state would be far from peace. The
fighting would continue along internal border areas with no side
giving up yet on its maximalist aims. Neither the more secular
Sunnis nor the Alawi, Shia, Kurds or the Druze want independent
statelets. They want to be Syrians. The Syrian government will
reassert itself, if needed with the
help of Russian
paratroopers. The war will still
go on
for a long time.