The Russians Are Coming to Aid Syria... Or Are
They?
As yet there is a shortage of proven facts to sustain allegations of
a big new Russian military build-up in Syria
By Patrick Cockburn
These are exciting stories bringing back
memories of the Cold War, but as yet there is a shortage of
proven facts to sustain allegations of a big new Russian
military build-up in Syria. This is according to a report by
Ruslan Leviev and a team of Russian journalists published on
the website Bellingcat that has previously investigated
Russian military involvement in Ukraine. Not in doubt is
that Russia has been Syria’s main military supplier for at
least 40 years, and that there have always been Russian
military personnel there.US
officials confirm only that Russia has recently sent two
tank landing craft, aircraft, and a small number of forces.
Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov,
said that Russian planes flying to an airfield near Latakia
were just carrying “military goods in accordance with
existing contracts and humanitarian aid”.
Much of the publicity about President
Vladimir Putin sending soldiers to Syria stems from a
video of fighting on 23 August north of Latakia. It
shows a modern Russian BTR82A armoured personnel carrier
apparently manned by soldiers speaking Russian, but there is
some dispute over a few words overheard. One Arabic speaker
thought he might have heard “meshoon”, slang for “let’s go”,
or the English “shoot”. The Russian journalists concluded
they could hear the Russian for “More!” and “Come on, [give
them] more!”
On 2 September there was a further sign of
Russian presence when the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria,
Jabhat al-Nusra, showed pictures of Russian planes –
possibly MiG-29s flown by the Syrian air force – and a UAV
surveillance drone over western Idlib province.
Russia has had a base at Tartous since
1971, but until 2013 it was a depot manned by just four
military seamen. This year there is evidence of more Russian
contract soldiers at the depot, presumably because the
Syrian opposition has made advances in nearby Idlib and
could threaten Latakia.
Overall, there is little evidence that at this
stage Russia has substantially increased its existing mission –
providing advice and instruction – probably numbering in the
hundreds, plus aircraft engineers and logistics specialists
protected by Russian marines.
Mr Assad’s forces are weaker this year and have
suffered significant territorial losses to Islamic State (Isis) and
a jihadi coalition led by Jabhat al-Nusra. This week the army lost a
large airbase at Abo al-Dohur, which was the last government
stronghold in Idlib province. But the pro-opposition Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights says this was out of service – so it is
a setback but not a crippling blow for Damascus.
The biggest threat to President Assad is probably
where Isis fighters have advanced from Palmyra and are
close to cutting the north-south highway, linking the capital to
cities such as Homs and Aleppo, and the Mediterranean. Isis has also
taken the government’s last remaining oilfield at Jazal.
See also
Russia Sending Advanced Anti-aircraft Missiles to Syria:
Moscow is sending an advanced anti-aircraft missile system to Syria,
two Western officials and a Russian source said, as part of what the
West believes is stepped-up military support for Syria.
