Netanyahu ‘Better Not Disturb The Status Quo’
Israel’s crackdown on Palestinian unrest threatens to topple Abbas
By Jonathan Cook
October 06, 2015
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The rapid escalation in violence in
Jerusalem and the West Bank in recent days suggests that the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict may be entering a new phase, analysts
say.
While some observers were quick to label this a third Palestinian
uprising or “Intifada”, the term risks obscuring as much as it
reveals.
The latest clashes, according to analysts, are occurring in a new
physical and political reality. Palestinian society has been
atomised by separation walls, checkpoints, and an expanding network
of settlements and military bases.
Meanwhile, the Palestinian national movement is deeply divided, the
Arab world is in disarray, the West is focused on its own economic
and social troubles, and Israel is adamantly opposed to
negotiations.
Unlike the earlier intifadas, points out Menachem Klein, of Bar Ilan
University, near Tel Aviv, the clashes are not chiefly about
resistance. They have been provoked by the growing stranglehold the
settlers enjoy, both on the ground and on government policy.
“There are now so many settlers that there is zero distance between
Palestinian communities and the settlements,” notes Klein. “That
ensures constant friction.”
Over the past few years, the settlers have dramatically increased
their so-called “price-tag” attacks. They regularly stone
neighbouring Palestinian villages or sometimes use army-issued
weapons; they set light to Palestinian places of worship; they steal
land, burn crops and take over water sources.
The Palestinians’ growing sense of vulnerability was underscored by
the arson attack in late July on the village of Duma that left three
members of the Dawabsheh family dead, including an 18-month-old
baby.
In Jerusalem, settlers have been aggressively staking their claim at
the most sensitive site in the conflict: the al-Aqsa Mosque compound
in the Old City.
Faced with threats from the settlers and a leadership vacuum,
Palestinians have begun organising themselves locally, “at the
village or neighbourhood level”, points out Samir Awad, a political
scientist at Birzeit University, near Ramallah.
Palestinian popular committees, which were created to defend against
settler violence, have made clashes – and tit-for-tat revenge
attacks – inevitable.
Locked into prison cells
Also confusing the picture is the lack of clarity about what
Palestinians hope to achieve, aside from revenge or letting off
steam.
Awad argues that Palestinians are no longer sure what they need to
shake off first. “Is it the larger occupation, the individual
miseries they endure from the settlers and army, or the Palestinian
leaders, who have achieved so little for them?”
Jerusalem-based analyst Jeff Halper points to the Palestinians’
mounting hopelessness, describing current events as a kind of
“lashing out”. “Palestinians see no political process. They are
being locked into their prison cells. They feel they have nothing to
lose.”
Until now, the Palestinian Authority (PA), which is committed to
enforcing security in the islands of West Bank territory it
ostensibly controls, has mostly succeeded in preventing the protests
from spreading to the Palestinian cities.
But the PA’s ability to contain these frustrations are in doubt,
observes Halper, given that they already suffer from a massive
credibility problem among Palestinians.
The very unruliness of the current events means Israel is struggling
to respond effectively.
For some time, Israel has been characterising most Palestinian
attacks on Israelis, especially those in Jerusalem where the PA and
Hamas are effectively barred, as “lone wolf” incidents.
These spontaneous outbursts of violence by Palestinian individuals
have exposed the Israeli security services to a new kind of
challenge.
Boiling point in Jerusalem
In Jerusalem, Israel has been trying to present an image of
normality to the outside world and visiting tourists, while waging a
low-level war against Palestinians. It has assisted the settlers in
“Judaising” the city and strengthening their presence around al-Aqsa.
But the simmering violence has been close to its boiling point for
the past year, since Jewish extremists burned alive 16-year-old
Mohammed Abu Khdeir.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, says Klein, has only one
option: more force. “His thinking is strictly short term. He is
interested primarily in crisis management. He believes he can
rebuild quiet for Israel through shock treatment.”
In an attempt to restore order, the Israeli government has been
ramping up the pressure on Palestinians by imposing draconian
measures, especially in Jerusalem.
It has, for the first time, temporarily shut Jerusalem’s Old City to
Palestinians who are not residents.
Muslim guardians at al-Aqsa, commonly known as al-Mourabitoun, have
been outlawed, and Palestinian worship severely restricted. Israel
has authorised live-fire against stone-throwers and minimum
four-year jail terms.There will also be fast-track demolition of the
homes of relatives of Palestinians who carry out attacks.
Even so, the settlers are not satisfied.
On Monday night, thousands surrounded Netanyahu’s residence in a
show of force, demanding he build a new settlement for every
Palestinian attack. They have been egged on by settler leaders in
his government.
Pondering invasion
There has been speculation that, as the pressure mounts, Netanyahu
may order a large-scale reinvasion of the West Bank, similar to
Operation Defensive Shield of 2002, which sought to crush the second
Intifada.
Such a scenario is unlikely, observed Awad, because it would only
risk bringing down Abbas and the PA.
“Israel has control. The Palestinian armed factions are no longer
organised in the West Bank. Abbas is coordinating with Israel on
security matters and is repressing his people and Hamas. It is
better for Netanyahu not to disturb the status quo.”
Yaron Ezrahi, an Israeli political scientist at the Hebrew
University in Jerusalem, concurs. He believes Netanyahu wants to
wait things out, on the model employed towards the Golan Heights,
seized by Israel from Syria in 1967.
“For years, Israel was under pressure to return the Golan to Syria,
but since the collapse of Syria, no one talks that way,” he said.
“Netanyahu hopes something similar can happen with the West Bank.”
But even without an invasion of the West Bank, Abbas’ situation is
precarious. Klein believes the Palestinian president will try to
cling on to power. “He fears that if he steps down or the PA
collapses, Hamas will fill the void and be impossible to remove.”
Nonetheless, most analysts agree that Abbas – or even the PA – could
become a casualty of current events.
In these circumstances, Israel would be forced to install a new
Palestinian leader more to their liking, or create a different
political arrangement.
That might involve the creation of mini-fiefdoms in the West Bank
based on each city, says Klein. Mayors could then be recruited to
keep order.
That, he adds, would thrust the ball back in the PLO’s court to
recreate itself as a resistance movement.
“Whatever the outcome, it won’t solve Israel’s problems [in the]
long term. The impulse among the Palestinians for national
liberation will still be there.”
Jonathan Cook is a Nazareth- based journalist and winner of the
Martha Gellhorn Special Prize for Journalism.
http://www.jonathan-cook.net/
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