Clinton’s Lead Over Trump is Declining
Poll Finds Opening for Third-Party Candidates
Deep dislike for the two leading candidates could
scramble the race as some voters seek alternatives
By Peter Nicholas
June 29, 2016 "Information
Clearing House"
- "WSJ"-
Deep dislike for the two leading presidential
candidates is creating an opening for third-party
hopefuls, potentially scrambling the race as voters
cast about for alternatives, a new Wall Street
Journal/NBC News poll shows.
With majorities of registered voters holding
negative views of Democrat Hillary Clinton and
Republican Donald Trump, two other candidates
notched a level of support that could prove
meaningful in a tight race.
Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate
Jill Stein together drew backing from 16% of the
1,000 people surveyed. When voters had the option of
choosing the third-party candidates, Mrs. Clinton’s
lead over Mr. Trump dropped from 5 percentage points
to 1 point.
The presence of third-party candidates on the ballot
could add a measure of unpredictability to the
election. The Libertarian Party expects to be on the
ballot in all 50 states, the Green Party in at least
three-quarters of states.
Mrs. Clinton led Mr. Trump by 46% to 41% when voters
were asked which of the two they favored. Mrs.
Clinton led by only a single point, 39% to 38%, when
voters could also choose Mr. Johnson or Ms. Stein.
On the four-candidate ballot, some 83% of those who
favored Mrs. Clinton in a two-way race stuck with
her as their preference, while 13% split off and
threw their support to Mr. Johnson or Ms. Stein.
Given the same choices, 89% of Trump voters stayed
loyal to him, while 9% moved to Mr. Johnson or Ms.
Stein.
The poll also shows that independent voters could be
an important factor in the election. Polling in the
fall of 2012 found that only 11% of independents
favored third-party candidates in that presidential
race, compared with 35% in the new Journal/NBC News
survey, which was conducted June 19-23.
Indeed, Mr. Johnson outpaced Mrs. Clinton among
independents, 23% to 15%, in the new poll.
Those whose views on the race haven’t hardened seem
open to choosing Mr. Johnson or Ms. Stein. These
“persuadable” voters comprised nearly three in 10 of
those surveyed.
Of them, 28% leaned toward Mr. Trump and 25% toward
Mrs. Clinton. Some 21% favored Mr. Johnson and 12%
went for Ms. Stein.
Pollsters cautioned that voters are more apt in the
summer before an election to say they will back
third-party candidates. When the race heats up in
the fall, they often revert to the major-party
contenders.
Yet the 2016 presidential race has often defied
conventional thinking. One difference between this
election and past ones is the unpopularity of the
two main candidates.
Some 55% of voters said in the new survey that they
saw Mrs. Clinton in a negative light. For Mr. Trump,
the figure was 60%. The ratings are worse than those
of any Republican or Democratic nominee dating to
1992.
When asked if they backed Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton
in the general election, 9% told the interviewers
that they would vote for neither.
The poll suggests that voters feel little personal
connection to either candidate. Asked if they shared
Mrs. Clinton’s values, 36% said yes while 61% said
no. Only 30% said they shared Mr. Trump’s values,
compared with 68% who said they didn’t. Those
numbers are far worse than for any of the Republican
and Democratic nominees in 2008 and 2012.
On this measure, Mrs. Clinton has lost ground
compared with her first presidential bid, in 2008.
In April of that year, voters were evenly split on
the question of whether they shared her values.
Fred Yang, a Democratic pollster who conducted the
Journal/NBC News survey with Republican Bill
McInturff, said: “This really will be an election in
which voters will be holding their noses.”
Mr. McInturff said: “Given the historic
dissatisfaction with the two major-party candidates,
there’s an opening for a larger share of the vote
for the third- and fourth-party candidates than
we’ve seen since [Ross] Perot.”
Running as an independent in 1992, Mr. Perot
captured 19% of the vote, finishing behind
Republican President George H.W. Bush and
then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, who won the
election. Mr. Perot ran again in 1996 and finished
with 8% of the vote.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1
percentage points.
Write to Peter Nicholas at peter.nicholas@wsj.com
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