Testing times ahead for Afghanistan

Compere: Tony Jones

TONY JONES: Well, just a short time ago, I spoke to Dr Samina Ahmed, project director of the International Crisis Group in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad.

TONY JONES: Samina Ahmed, how much credence do you give to the fears that large parts of Afghanistan could once again become ungovernable tracts controlled by the Taliban and al-Qa'ida even?

DR SAMINA AHMED, INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP: Well, actually the situation as it exists today shows that large parts of Afghanistan are already going in that particular direction.

The south and the east in particular are the trouble areas but the trouble extends beyond the south and the east, beyond the al-Qa'ida and the Taliban presence in the north as well in the north, the periodic clashes between warlords.

So really, apart from the little bubbles of stability, if you could call it that, the cities and some of the centres, Afghanistan at this point is time is heading for trouble.

TONY JONES: Let's concentrate on the south and the east for the moment.

I mean, is there any evidence the Taliban are actually using the sanctuary of Pakistan at this time?

DR SAMINA AHMED: Well, we've spoken to Afghan Government officials and they are deeply concerned that Taliban insurgents operating in the south and the east are using Pakistani sanctuaries.

We heard the same concerns being expressed by international military personnel.

So quite obviously there is some credence to this particular interpretation of the Taliban resurgents, if it could be called that, that they have sanctuaries the other side of the border that they are using and operating pretty much at will.

But, that said, there is another issue here, and that you hear from Afghan officials as well, so there is a bit of nuance there.

That, in the south and the east, Pashtun alienation is so high that you actually have growing support for the Taliban.

So you have home-grown Talibs, Afghan Talibs operating from Pakistani territory but also home-grown Talibs operating from their own base within Afghanistan.

TONY JONES: Of the officials in Afghanistan you've spoken to, and I presume that means NATO military officials, as well as the Afghan officials, do they have any idea what sort of numbers we're talking about in terms of the Taliban, how many men under arms, for example?

DR SAMINA AHMED: It's really very difficult to say, and nobody is willing to commit to figures because it is largely anecdotal.

I mean, what one CAN say is the frequency of incidents, attacks, has increased and the numbers of insurgents has increased.

This is how you actually try and quantify the change -- in other words, there are that many attacks -- and this has actually been quantified -- there are that many attacks in so many days over so many weeks, and there's certainly an increase in attacks not just on the coalition forces but on Afghans and on the international community in terms of the donors working particularly in the south and in the east.

TONY JONES: Just sticking with those areas still for a little longer.

I mean, why wouldn't it be possible simply for the Pakistan Army to do a sweep through that whole area in very large numbers and do something about those enclaves where the Taliban are taking sanctuary?

DR SAMINA AHMED: The Pakistan Army claims that it is doing as much as it possibly can to prevent incursions from Pakistani territory.

They claim that there are already large numbers of troops on the borders -- that is, the borders of Balujistan in the north-west frontier province.

What we hear from the other side of the border in Afghanistan, and this is from the internationals and from the Afghans themselves, that, no, the Pakistanis are certainly not doing enough and there's a lot more that they can do.

So here's the thing -- absent the kind of international pressure which is needed, it is doubtful if the Pakistanis will do more than they are doing at present.

TONY JONES: Why aren't we seeing that international pressure?

Presumably, the Americans desperately need General Musharraf's aid now in Iraq, among other things, not only his moral support but his troops as well in the peacekeeping forces, as they're called inside Iraq, the security forces at least, that Washington wants to build up inside Iraq.

Is that why we're not seeing any pressure on Pakistan?

DR SAMINA AHMED: Well, let's backtrack a little bit.

There IS pressure on Pakistan.

In the past few months as the attacks on the coalition forces have increased, so has the pressure on the Musharraf Government.

But, that said, certainly there isn't enough pressure, and I don't think it's the Iraq issue that is crucial.

What is driving American policy at the moment is the fact that the Musharraf Government is really quite effective in its operations against al-Qa'ida.

They've rounded up 500 -- that's a very large sum -- and they're still rounding them up.

So, as long as that is considered the primary threat to US national security, which is al-Qa'ida, not regional extremists but foreign terrorists, then, for the US, I think, policy makers balance the two things -- the need for continued cooperation against al-Qa'ida from the Pakistani military as opposed to Pakistani operations against regional extremists, the Taliban.

TONY JONES: Is there any evidence at all to your knowledge that Pakistan's interservices intelligence directorate, which, after all, built the Taliban up in the first place, may be involved in building them up again now?

DR SAMINA AHMED: I don't know if there's any evidence or not, but there's certainly evidence that points in the directions of the MMA government -- this is an umbrella group of Islamic parties that are governing in the north-west frontier province.

They run the provincial government and they have a coalition government in Balujistan.

Now there isn't even evidence there but what one does read as periodic statements from MMA leaders saying that they believe that the Taliban are the only form of government that Afghanistan should have, that they will support the Taliban, that they continue to support the Taliban -- those types of statements are coming from provincial government ministers.

Now, that certainly doesn't help.

What doesn't help either is the fact that these same parties run madrassas, Islamic seminaries, and the Taliban actually emerged from these religious schools.

TONY JONES: There are also credible reports emerging now that there's been a bumper harvest of opium and that, indeed, is fuelling the resurgence of the Taliban, not to mention other warlords inside Afghanistan.

How big a problem is that?

DR SAMINA AHMED: The UN has just issued a report.

This is a very, very serious problem.

It's taken seriously by everybody within Afghanistan, the international community -- that is, the diplomatic missions plus the international coalition forces -- plus, of course, the Afghan government.

The estimated harvest this year might be 4,000 tonnes of opium, which is a huge, huge sum.

And this is growing.

The next harvest is -- the next harvest is already around the corner, so you can just imagine the kind of money we're talking about.

Estimated figures -- $2.5 billion to $3 billion.

That is certainly feeding into the insurgency in terms of the Taliban having access to these resources but also the warlords.

It's not just the Taliban that challenge the control of the Karzai Government.

The warlords are equipping themselves for a return to power.

They see the Karzai Government as much of an impediment as the Taliban do.

TONY JONES: None of this of course bodes at all well for the Karzai Government and the small bubbles in which security can be maintained at the moment since the international forces still aren't moving beyond those cities.

What do you think is going to happen to the Karzai Government if these forces you're talking about are not quickly reined in?

DR SAMINA AHMED: I think here there's some hopes that the international coalition forces, in particular ISAF, the peacekeeping force, will expand beyond where it is right now, which is Kabul.

NATO, as ISAF has, has been given a mandate to expand its presence, and certainly the presence of international peacekeepers and International Crisis Group, my organisation, has very, very strongly urged the international community to implement this mandate as soon as possible.

The presence of international peacekeepers in crucial centres, especially centres that are the centres of instability in Afghanistan, will help the Karzai Government to assert its presence.

But we've also got to remember that elections are around the corner, the constitutional lawyer is meeting, so the political fate of Afghanistan is going to be decided in a period when Kabul faces threats from every possible direction.

TONY JONES: Is there any evidence that ISAF has the forces and/or the will to actually do what you're talking about, to move beyond these areas to really establish proper control over ungovernable parts of the country?

DR SAMINA AHMED: Well, that is part of the problem.

At the moment, there are very few peacekeepers that are there on the ground, and NATO member countries seem to be hesitant.

The political will doesn't seem to be there to commit the kinds of numbers that the mandate needs, the missions need.

And, certainly, we have urged in collaboration with a number of other international organisations, NATO member countries to come forward.

Because I think we've all got to realise one thing -- if NATO doesn't prove successful as ISAF, then Afghanistan -- it's not just Afghanistan that's in a lot of trouble, but it has regional implications and it has implications for the international community.

TONY JONES: The Kabul interim government is now being seen as a model by Washington for what should happen in Iraq.

If that is the case, what are the lessons that we should take as occupying powers -- Australia, Britain, the United States -- for Iraq?

DR SAMINA AHMED: Well, to begin with, there are lessons to be learnt from Afghanistan, before they're applied to Iraq.

I think the primary lesson to be learned is not to try and manipulate the political process.

If the constitutional lawyer isn't perceived as a free and fair process in which the delegates can express their will, if the delegates aren't elected, nominated, freely by the people of Afghanistan, the constitutional process is in danger.

And, if the electoral process doesn't proceed in a manner in which elections are seen to be free and fair, then the outcome of those elections, regardless of whether President Karzai is elected again or not, is in trouble.

These are the lessons that need to be applied to Iraq.

TONY JONES: It does seem like Karzai may well be re-elected, or elected as president.

I'm wondering, though, how much of this could be changed by an unforeseen event -- like, for example, the assassination of Hamid Karzai, something which has already been tried on a number of occasions?

DR SAMINA AHMED: You can never predict what's going to happen in Afghanistan, but there is one thing that can be predicted -- Hamid Karzai, it's not a foregone conclusion that he will be elected president.

It's very likely he will be elected president, but if the process itself is not, as I said, transparent, free and fair, then his own legitimacy is in doubt.

It serves nobody's purposes.

It's not a matter of some horrible event happening that deprives Afghanistan of Karzai, but it is the Afghan people choosing their new leader -- whether it's Karzai or somebody else.

TONY JONES: Samina Ahmed, thank you very much for that assessment two years on after the fall of Kabul.

We thank you for that and for joining us tonight.

DR SAMINA AHMED: Thank you very much.