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Saudis, Oil, Israel, & America
The Shalom Center
04/28/05 "ICH" - - Some important connections have been sketched out recently - hidden but in plain view. Consider what Prime Minister Sharon's National Security Advisor (and former Mossad chief), Efraim Halevy has to say:
"In a visit to the United States two weeks ago, I was told by several well-informed observers that should one of the more severe scenarios come to pass, the United States will have no choice but to deepen its presence in the Middle East. To that end, it will have to renew the draft, to ensure that there are enough forces to deal with developing situations in countries like Saudi Arabia."
The 'scenario' being talked about is the entirely possible overthrow of the Saudi monarchy. Israeli and American national security professionals are conversing about the likely consequences of present US policy: the need to use military force to secure 'our' supply of cheap oil.
Of course now the US-Saudi relationship is friendly as can be, with images of President Bush and the Saudi Crown Prince holding hands appearing everywhere.
But behind the smiling faces, why would the US care enough about an upheaval in Saudi Arabia to imagine a military draft to support intervention there?
Because Saudi oil production is crucial in the present version of US energy use. Alternative sources of oil could not replace the Saudi share, were they to halt production. While the current Saudi regime would never do such a thing, any increase in the supply of democracy might lead to a regime with vastly different loyalties.
Oil supply flat or lower; oil demand higher; oil prices jump. Can the US in its present shape cope with huge price increases -- not only in oil and gasoline themselves, but rippling through all sectors of the economy?
According to Halevy, the Saudis are demanding - and will continue to demand - US action on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
"In the eyes of the Saudi prince, the rise in the level of tension, violence and enmity in our conflict had the effect of significantly strengthening the extremists in his country and throughout the Arab world..."
To preserve their regime, they need Israeli-Palestinian quiet, which can only be achieved with US pressure. Halevy thinks it entirely possible that someday the US will accept Arab proposals that Israel rejects. [The Coming Pax Americana, Haaretz, April 24, 2005. Read the full article here.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=568076
]
So the addiction of the US to oil brings the dangers of one or more of three unsatisfactory results:
Deep economic trouble and social unrest in the US;
AND/OR larger-scale military intervention in the Middle East, bringing problems at home, more rage against the US in other parts of the Muslim world, and probably more anti-US terrorism;
AND/OR changes in US policy toward Israel and Palestine driven not by concern for the freedom, safety, and self-determination of both peoples but by deference to the Saudi throne.
The alarm bells are ringing. This is the first phase of an energy crisis expected to last for decades.
While changing US energy use to sustainable fuels like wind power will not be easy, it implies far less disruption and violence.
Copyright: The Shalom Center
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