Shouting, Tiny Stick
Donald Trump won't be winning any wars against Islamist
terror if he imagines dismantling the Russia-China-Iran
alliance is possible. His saber-rattling against Iran is
By Pepe Escobar
February 08, 2017
Here we go again.
General “Mad Dog” Mattis, the US Secretary of Defense,
declares Iran “is the single biggest state sponsor of
terrorism in the world.” National Security Advisor
General Michael Flynn puts Iran “on notice.” President
Trump says “they are not behaving,” and, on his
Superbowl interview, doubles down: “They are the No 1
terrorist state. They’re sending money all over the
place – and weapons. And… [they] can’t do that.” Iran is
slapped with new sanctions. It’s as if Dick “Dark Side”
Cheney and Donald “known unknowns” Rumsfeld never left.
facts to get in the way of a bombastic quote. “State
sponsor of terrorism” is a neocon meme for any
nation/political system that resists US Exceptionalism.
The industrial-military-intelligence-security complex
feeds on massive budgets to engage these manufactured
“threats” while real, on the ground terrorism – yielding
from the Salafi-jihadi matrix – has absolutely nothing
to do with Iran.
The birth of
al-Qaeda was inbuilt in the official Dr Zbig “Grand
Chessboard” Brzezinski doctrine of fighting the former
USSR in Afghanistan in the 1980s via a Wahhabi-controlled
Jihad Inc. Nothing to do with Iran. Even Trump’s own
national security advisor admitted on the record
there was a “willful decision” by the Obama
administration to let ISIS/ISIL/Daesh fester. Nothing to
do with Iran.
As for the
Iranian missile test, the UN resolution concerning the
nuclear deal “called upon” Iran not to test
This was a conventional missile test, as even the
White House admitted.
So what is it
all about? We must once again resort to the
shadowplay/wayang of a Henry Kissinger-devised new
balance-of-power US foreign policy bent on preventing
Eurasian integration by prying away Russia from China
while antagonizing Iran.
Putting the New Silk Roads “on
Beijing was not
amused by the new “unilateral” (Foreign Ministry
description) anti-Iran sanctions barring access to the
US financial system or dealings with US companies. After
all, the sanctions include two Chinese companies and two
Chinese nationals. Xinhua worries that overall this may
become “a ticking time bomb for peace and stability in
the Middle East.”
spokesman Dmitry Peskov for his part stressed that
Russia and Iran “cooperate on a wide range of issues,
[we] value our trade ties, and hope to develop them
administration, and whoever the privileged dalang
advisor in the shade, the US strategic imperative in
Eurasia always remains the same – to prevent the ascent
of a peer competitor, or worse, an alliance, as in the
case of a Sino-Russian strategic partnership.
For China, Iran
is an absolutely critical node of the New Silk Roads, or
One Belt, One Road (OBOR). Along with Russia, it is a
key player in the International North-South
Transportation Corridor (INSTC), is set to increase its
cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), and
will become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO). All this spells out Eurasian
integration. By 2030 Eurasia may exceed the US and
Europe in global GDP terms. Eurasia, not the Atlantic
alliance, is the future.
Most of the
geostrategic game ahead hinges on whether there can be a
“win-win” grand bargain between the Trump administration
and the Kremlin. Assuming Washington would back off in
eastern Ukraine and accept Russia’s legitimate sphere of
influence in Eurasia – hardly a given – the price to pay
for Moscow would be to let go of its very close
partnership with Tehran. Kissinger should know better;
this is not going to happen.
there are pressing facts on the ground. The avowed, much
ballyhooed Trump smashing of ISIS/ISIL/Daesh across
“Syraq” simply cannot happen without Tehran-supported
Shi’ite militias/boots on the ground, the Quds force led
by Gen. Soleimani, as well as Hezbollah fighters in
Syria. Trump is waiting for his ordered 30-day Pentagon
plan of “victory” against the jihadis. Bets can be made
that the Pentagon won’t integrate both Iran and Russia –
both doctrinally regarded as “threats”.
In a nutshell;
Trump cannot win his war against Islamist terror if he
fully subscribes to the neocon wet dream of crippling
the Russia-China-Iran alliance.
wouldn’t require a PhD thesis for Trump to understand
that Iranophobia is bad for business. Iran is a
tremendous developing market ripe for investment, as
attested by European, Russian, Chinese and South Korean
Trump’s campaign promise of no more regime change
adventures holds, the new US strategic mission across
Southwest Asia would be to essentially guarantee that
global supply chain sea lanes remain open and secure –
to the benefit of booming business across the Rimland.
Russia and China could not agree more.
been to Iran – neocons haven’t – knows Tehran won’t be
subdued with angry threats. Iran has been under US
sanctions for no fewer than 38 years. Absolutely nothing
across Southwest Asia can be accomplished,
geopolitically, without Iranian participation.
Nobody – except
the usual suspects – wants confrontation. The Joint
Chiefs had already informed then President Obama that
Washington cannot go to war again until at least 2022;
part of Trump’s platform is exactly to facilitate the
means to recruit, retrain and re-tool a new US military.
And even in the
(terrifying) event that the Pentagon hits Iran, it would
take just a few Iranian ballistic missiles strategically
deployed against oil fields and oil refineries around
the Persian Gulf to spell out the end of the
betting on – and wants to profit from – a new multipolar
world order. Beijing knows there is no New Silk Road if
Iran is constrained. Iran’s arc of development is
inevitable – and European, Russian and Chinese investors
know it. An American geography professor who conducted a
project on the US presidential race told me that among
pro-Hillary, anti-Hillary, pro-Trump and anti-Trump
factions, “in no case did any of the four sides mention
the New Silk Roads, or OBOR.” Trump’s cabinet – with the
possible exception of Secretary of State “T.Rex”
Tillerson – may also fit this mould.
To speak loudly
and carry a tiny stick could not be more
counter-productive. It might be a stretch to expect
Trump to actually read his foreign policy dalang, but if
he went through Kissinger’s World Order he would learn
that “the United States and the Western democracies
should be open to fostering cooperative relations with
Iran. What they must not do is base such a policy on
projecting their own domestic experience as inevitably
or automatically relevant to other societies,’
expressed in this article are solely those of the author
and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of
Information Clearing House.