Enemies Seek Face Saving Escalation Measures
By Moon Of
05, 2016 "Information
Russia Accuses Turkey of Preparing to Invade Syria
Russian military said Thursday that it has
"reasonable grounds" to suspect that Turkey is
making intensive preparations for a military
invasion of neighboring Syria.
of a checkpoint on the border between the
Turkish town of Reyhanli and the town of Sarmada
in Syrian taken in late October and late January
show a buildup of transportation infrastructure
that could be used for moving in troops,
ammunition and weapons, spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor
Konashenkov said in an English-language written
these were among growing signs of "hidden
preparation of the Turkish armed forces for
active actions on the territory of Syria.
A Turkish Foreign Ministry official said the
ministry would have no immediate comment.
press briefing (vid with English subtitles)
includes the pictures of the border post.
prohibited a Russian reconnaissance "Open Skies
Treaty" flight over the Turkish-Syrian border zone.
There are dozens such flights per year over Russia
by NATO and over NATO countries by Russia. This is
to my knowledge the first time such a flight, which
had earlier been requested and accepted, is blocked
by the guest country.
Russian military spokesperson
It is to
be reminded that the Russian Defence Ministry
has intensified all kinds of intelligence in the
Middle East region.
why, if someone in Ankara thinks that the
prohibition of Russian observer flight allows to
hide something, it is unprofessional.
decisive Syrian government victory yesterday
cuts off the foreign supported insurgents in Aleppo
and Idleb from they supply sources in Turkey and
deprives them of their fuel supplies.
to that victory the supporters of the insurgents and
terrorist in Syria are likely to increase their
efforts. The negotiations in Geneva failed over the
Syrian victory and the Saudis had already promised
that such a failure would lead to an increased
support. The Saudi Defense Ministry
declared today that Saudi ground forces could
take part in action in Syria. It is doubtful that
the Saudis have a real capability to do so.
Saudis and others will now again shower the
insurgents and Jihadis in Syria with money and new
weapons. A Turkish invasion could add momentum to
such a move.
invasion would be come at the Syrian and Turkish
border between Azaz and Jarabulus that is currently
under Islamic State control. The Syrian YPG Kurds
plan to take that area with Russian help and to seal
the border. Turkey does not want that to happen. Its
lines of communication with the Islamic State
must be kept open.
So is a
Turkish invasion of Syria in preparation? My guess
But will it
really happen? My guess is no.
restrain Turkey from such a misguided adventure. It
could mean war with Russia and no European NATO
country would like that to happen. Without NATO
backing the Turkish military is unlikely to follow
the order for such a move.
revelation of the Turkish preparations is increasing
the deterrence against such a move. It also means
that Russia would react harshly against a Turkish
invasion and surely Russia has demonstrated by now
that it has the means to do so in decisive ways.
while Turkey is unlikely to send its army it may use
a proxy force to capture more Syrian territory.
lobby in Washington DC in form of the Washington
advising Turkey to invade Syria by proxy to keep
the Kurds away from the border zone.
effective way to monitor the Azaz-Jarabulus
border area would be to ensure that the Syrian
side is filled by forces friendly to Turkey, or
at least opposed to IS. One possible such group
would be the Syrian Turkmens, who are ethnically
related to Turks and are being trained by Turkey
as a fighting force in northwestern Syria.
[T]he Turkish armed forces has modern artillery
with an effective range of twenty to twenty-five
miles, UAVs, and other means to protect its
clients administering a prospective safe zone.
"Turkmen" had occupied northern Latakia where they
are just being kicked out by the Syrian army and its
supporters. They consist
of Turkish "Grey Wolf" fascists, Turkish
Islamists and Chechen and Uhigur Islamist
mercenaries. They are controlled by the Turkish
secret service MIT.
plan has a logical flaw. If, as the Washington
Institute lobbyists claim, it is desirable for
Turkey to monitor or seal the border from Islamic
State infiltration why can't this be done on the
Turkish side of the border? Why does this
necessitate an illegal invasion by proxy of Syria? I
find no plausible answer to that last question.
lobbyists also skip over the question of potential
retaliation. If Turkish artillery fires into Syria
then Syria and its supporters are legally justified
to fire back by whatever means are needed. A few
Russian cruise missiles could easily take care of
those Turkish artillery battalions. What would then
Turks nor the Saudis nor the U.S. nor Israel have
given up on their "regime change" war on Syria. But
their proxies have taken serious losses and are
likely to lose the fight. While we can expect some
new attempts for escalation I expect that these
will be mere face saving moves. It will take some
additional time until the reality will sink in and
until some other issue can be found to distract from
their inevitable retreat.