U.S. Intelligence Had A 'Duty To Warn' Khashoggi - Why Didn't That Happen?
By Moon Of
Alabama
October 11, 2018 "Information
Clearing House"
-
It is beyond doubt that the Saudi
government abducted, or killed, the Saudi
journalist Jamal Khashoggi. But what did the
Trump administration knew about the threat
to Khashoggi? Did U.S. intelligence services
warn him as their regulations require? Was
such a warning blocked by the White House?
And what will Trump do about the case?
The Turkish government published pictures of
15 men who had come from Saudi Arabia and
were in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul
shortly before Khashoggi visited it to get
his divorce papers. They moved Khashoggi to
the residence of the consul and later that
day flew back on the same two private Saudi
jets that had brought them to Istanbul.
At least 8 of the 15 men have been
identified as Saudi royal military. At least
three are bodyguards of the Saudi clown
prince Mohammad bin Salman. It is thereby
obvious that the clown prince himself gave
the order for the operation. One of the 15
is Dr. Salah Muhammed Al-Tubaigy, the head
of forensic evidence at the Saudi General
Security Department.
Are You Tired Of The Lies And Non-Stop Propaganda? |
Anonymous
Turkish sources assert that Khashoggi was
killed, his body cut to pieces and taken
away. They even claim that there is video of
the murder:
The official described a quick and complex
operation in which Mr. Khashoggi was killed
within two hours of his arrival at the
consulate by a team of Saudi agents, who
dismembered his body with a bone saw they
brought for the purpose.
“It is like ‘Pulp Fiction,’” the official
said.
...
Mr. Erdogan was informed of the conclusions
on Saturday, according to several people
with knowledge of the briefings, and he has
since dispatched officials to anonymously
tell myriad news outlets, including The New
York Times, that Mr. Khashoggi was killed
inside the Saudi Consulate.
...
Another person briefed on the matter,
speaking on condition of anonymity to
disclose confidential details, told The
Times on Saturday that Turkish intelligence
had obtained a video of the killing, made by
the Saudis to prove that it had occurred.
A commentator close to Mr. Erdogan’s
government said so publicly on Tuesday.
“There is a video of the moment of him being
killed,” Kemal Ozturk, a columnist in a
pro-government newspaper and the former head
of a semiofficial news agency, said in an
interview on a pro-government television
network, citing unnamed security officials.
That Erdogan pushes this 'Pulp Fiction'
story is not astonishing. His troops protect
Qatar from a Saudi attack and Qatar props up
the Turkish economy with multi-billion
investments. There is also the old Ottoman
versus Arab fight over leadership in the
Middle East.
But why would the Saudis kill Khashoggi? Why
not drug him, haul him to the airport and
fly him back to Riyadh as a "medial
emergency"? Why not put him into a big box
and transported him as privileged diplomatic
baggage? If the Saudis intended to kill
Khashoggi they could have hire some guy to
shoot him in the streets. It would have been
a much simpler operation and way less
suspicious.
Killing Khashoggi in the official Consulate
makes no sense - unless MbS wanted this
current public outrage. Is it a warning to
all his enemies? Is it to demonstrate that
he can get away with anything?
The Washington Post reports that the U.S.
government knew that Khashoggi was in
danger:
Before Khashoggi’s disappearance, U.S.
intelligence intercepted communications of
Saudi officials discussing a plan to capture
him, according to a person familiar with the
information. The Saudis wanted to lure
Khashoggi back to Saudi Arabia and lay hands
on him there, this person said. It was not
clear whether the Saudis intended to arrest
and interrogate Khashoggi or to kill him, or
if the United States warned Khashoggi that
he was a target, this person said.
If U.S. intelligence knew of the danger to
Khashoggi Intelligence Community Directive
191 - Duty to Warn (pdf) would have applied:
An IC element that collects or acquires
credible and specific information indicating
an impending threat of intentional killing,
serious bodily injury, or kidnapping
directed at a person or group of people
(hereafter referred to as intended victim)
shall have a duty to warn the intended
victim or those responsible for protecting
the intended victim, as appropriate. This
includes threats where the target is an
institution, place of business, structure,
or location. The term intended victim
includes both U.S. persons, as defined in EO
12333, Section 3.5(k), and non-U.S. persons.
Read plainly ICD 191 provides that the U.S.
intelligence services had to warn Khashoggi
of the Saudi threat. Did they do so or not?
There are a few exceptions in the directive
that allow to withhold a warning. If the
information came through a friendly
intelligence service the protection of
sources and methods has priority over a
warning (point E.3.e. in the regulation.)
If U.S. intelligence acquired the
information through the British GHCQ, a
warning to Khashoggi might have revealed
that the GHCQ has bugged all those Cisco
telephones the Saudi royals so proudly
display. But there was little danger that a
warning to Khashoggi would have revealed
anything. The Saudis will surely expect that
the U.S., British and other intelligence
services listen to even their private
communications.
There may have been other reasons to
withhold a warning. Trump's son in law and
senior aid Jared Kushner has good personal
relations with MbS. In March The Intercept
reported that, according to MbS, Kushner
revealed U.S. intelligence about MbS'
enemies to him.
[A]fter the meeting, Crown Prince Mohammed
told confidants that Kushner had discussed
the names of Saudis disloyal to the crown
prince, according to three sources who have
been in contact with members of the Saudi
and Emirati royal families since the
crackdown.
The meeting took place in late October 2017.
About a week later the Saudi clown prince
incarcerated hundreds of his rich relatives
and other Saudi billionaires in the Ritz
hotel in Riyadh and pressured them to hand
over their assets.
Kushner had obviously no qualms to rat out
the people who privately criticized MbS.
(In February 2018 Kushner lost access to top
level security briefings because his interim
security clearance was revoked. This may
have been the deep state's revenge for his
indiscretion. Kushner finally passed full
clearance and regained access in May.)
Not to warn Khashoggi might well have been a
White House decision. It is the Trump's
administration policy to not challenge its
allies over human rights issues. The State
Department even produced a memo explaining
that human rights criticism only applies to
U.S. 'enemies'.
If the Saudis want to nab Khashoggi, the
White House might have thought, why no let
them have him?
Trump's foreign policy depends on good
relations with the Saudis:
The Trump administration, from the president
on down, is heavily invested in the Saudi
relationship. Robin Wright, a scholar at the
Wilson Center think tank and close friend of
the missing writer, said that’s unlikely to
change. The administration’s Middle East
agenda heavily depends on the Saudis,
including efforts to counter Iranian
influence in the region, fight extremism and
build support for its yet-to-be-released
plan for peace between Israel and the
Palestinians.
The Turkish and Qatari rulers and their
media do their best to propagandize the case
and to rage against the Saudi regime. The
Washington Post, for which Khashoggi wrote,
will surely not let go of the issue. Other
'western' media and journalists are also
enraged about the case. Khashoggi was one of
them, aristocratic elite as they see
themselves, who do not deserve such fate.
Can MbS and the Trump regime really sit back
and not reply to demands of serious
consequences over the case?
That may well be. After all, no one is
challenging the U.S.-Saudis alliance over
the daily murder it commits in Yemen and
elsewhere. If the Saudis kidnapped Khashoggi,
and provide evidence that he is alive, the
media outrage will soon die down. If the
Turkish government publishes the video of
the murder that it claims to have, it will
only take a bit longer until other news
moves the case from the front pages.
There is no real reason for MbS, or Trump,
to care.
Khashoggi Burial Negotiations Commence - Saudis Will Cough Up Billions To Settle The Case
By Moon Of Alabama
The Khashoggi case, discussed here, will be moved off the news pages even faster than assumed.
A CNN correspondent just tweeted this:
Alexander Marquardt @MarquardtA - 16:44 utc - 11 Oct 2018
Erdogan spox: "At the request of Saudi Arabia, a joint working group will be established to uncover the events surrounding Jamal Khashoggi."
Translation:
Erdogan spox: "Our Sultan received a sufficient amount to start negotiations about the burial of the case."
Prediction:
Erdogan will use the 'joint working group' to squeeze as much as he can out of the Saudis. (This may even include a political settlement of the Saudi blockade of Erdogan's sponsor Qatar.)
Yesterday 22 Senators signed a request to Trump to investigate the Khashoggi case under the Global Magnitsky Act. The Trump administration has 120 days to finish an investigation and to report back to the Senate. Any person or organization found to be involved in the kidnapping and possible murder of Khashoggi could then come under U.S. sanctions.
Those 120 days are the time-frame for Erdogan to use the thumbscrews the Saudi fuckup in its consulate in Istanbul handed him. The Saudi clown prince Mohammad bin Salman will get squeezed like never before. It will cost him billions to purchase the video of the Khashoggi killing the Turkish government claims to have.
Erdogan will not be the only one to profit from the issue. The Senate move gives Trump enormous power to press the Saudis.
Trump loudly claimed that he personally closed a $110 billion deal to sell the Saudis more useless weapons. There never was a 'deal', only some non-binding letters of intent.
The Saudis have been reluctant to follow through. They did not pony up the $15 billion for the U.S. made THAAD missile defense systems Trump 'sold' them and even talked with Russia about buying the much cheaper and better S-400:
According to The Washington Post, among the agreements still up in the air is the $15 billion purchase of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System [THAAD], made by US defense contractor Lockheed Martin.In a sign of Trump's continued emphasis on arms sales as a component of US foreign policy, White House senior adviser and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner personally intervened with Lockheed to secure a 20% discount for the air-defense system.
Yet Riyadh let a September 30 deadline to wrap up that purchase come and go, according to The Post.
The new sales-pitch is easy to see. Either MbS buys the THAAD and other useless systems (without discount), or the investigation Trump has to pursue will reluctantly find MbS involved in the Khashoggi case. That would put MbS and his assets within the U.S. under sanctions. The Saudi King would then have to replace MbS as clown king and successor.
Others will also try to gain political profit from the case. Netanyahoo will request that the investigation under the Global Magnitsky Act finds that Iran is guilty of the murder. Others will want to blame Russia. Was it a GRU cyberattack that hindered the Saudi consulates CCTV from recording the events while Qasem Soleimani slipped into the Saudi consulate and novichoked Khashoggi?
That might sound far fetched or even crazy but we have been here before. When in December 1988 Pan Am Flight 103 exploded over Lockerbie it was quite obvious that it was revenge of the July 1988 murder of 290 people on board of Iran Air flight 655 by the U.S. navy. But the investigation was fudged and in the end it was politically most convenient to blame Libya's Ghaddafi for the Pan Am disaster even while he had nothing to do with either incident.
But whatever.
Deals will be made and the case will be buried. If the deals are good enough, several dozen billions will be required, the U.S. might even allow Mohammad bin Salman to stay in his position.
But King Salman, or some Saudi citizens, may well find that the various crazy endeavors MbS tends to launch - the war on Yemen, the Qatar blockade, the Khashoggi assassination - are becoming way too costly for the country. A simple unlucky home accident could solve that problem.
This article was originally published by "Moon Of Alabama" -
Do you agree or disagree? Post your comment here.
==See Also==
Jamal Khashoggi 'Dragged from Consulate Office, Killed and Dismembered': We know when Jamal was killed, in which room he was killed and where the body was taken to be dismembered. If the forensic team are allowed in, they know exactly where to go
Turkish Officials Say Khashoggi Was Killed on Order of Saudi Leadership
Watch; Jamal Khashoggi: CCTV shows alleged Saudi hit squad's movements
Saudi team after Post writer included soldiers, royal guards
Saudis discussed plan to lure Jamal Khashoggi to Saudi Arabia, US intercepts show
The Saudi view: Turkey is not safe: In the wake of false media reports against the Kingdom by the agents of Qatari regime and the Muslim Brotherhood, many Saudi tourists are now giving a second thought to visiting Turkey.
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