Media And Pundits Misread The 'Everyone Wins'
Plan For Syria|
By Moon Of Alabama
October 18, 2019 "Information
Clearing House" -
The U.S. media get
yesterday's talks between U.S. Vice President Mike
Pence and the Turkish President
Erdogan all wrong. Those talks were just a show to
soothe the criticism against President Donald
Trump's decision to withdraw U.S. troops from
The fake negotiations did not change the larger
win-win-win-win plan or the facts on the ground.
The Syrian Arab Army is replacing the Kurdish PKK/YPG
troops at the border with Turkey. The armed PKK/YPG
forces, which had
deceivingly renamed themselves (vid) "Syrian
Democratic Forces" to win U.S. support, will be
disbanded and integrated into the Syrian army. Those
moves are sufficient to give Turkey the security
guarantees it needs. They will prevent any further
The Washington Post
Turkey agreed Thursday to a cease-fire that
would suspend its march into Syria and
temporarily halt a week of vicious fighting with
Kurdish forces, while allowing President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan’s government to carve out a
long-coveted buffer zone far beyond its borders.
The agreement, announced by Vice President
Pence after hours of negotiations, appeared to
hand Turkey’s leader most of what he sought when
his military launched an assault on northeastern
Syria just over a week ago: the expulsion of
Syrian Kurdish militias from the border and the
removal of a U.S. threat to impose sanctions on
Turkey’s vulnerable economy.
Pence said Turkey had agreed to pause its
offensive for five days while the United States
helped facilitate the withdrawal of Kurdish-led
forces, called the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),
from a large swath of territory stretching from
Turkey’s border nearly 20 miles south into
Syria. After the completion of the Kurdish
withdrawal, Turkey’s military operation, which
began Oct. 9, would be “halted entirely,” Pence
The New York Times falsely headlines:
In ‘Cave-In,’ Trump Cease-Fire Cements Turkey’s
Gains in Syria
The cease-fire agreement reached with Turkey by
Vice President Mike Pence amounts to a
near-total victory for Turkey’s president, Recep
Tayyip Erdogan, who gains territory, pays little
in penalties and appears to have outmaneuvered
The best that can be said for the
agreement is that it may stop the
killing in the Kurdish enclave in
northern Syria. But the cost for Kurds,
longtime American allies in the fight
against the Islamic State, is severe:
Even Pentagon officials were mystified
about where tens of thousands of
displaced Kurds would go, as they moved
south from the Turkey-Syria border as
required by the deal — if they agree to
go at all.
Military officials said they were
stunned that the agreement essentially
allowed Turkey to annex a portion of
Syria, displace tens of thousands of
Kurdish residents and wipe away years of
counterterrorism gains against the
The U.S. can not "allow Turkey to annex a portion
of Syria". The U.S. does not own Syria. It is
completely bollocks to think that it has the power
to allow Turkey to annex parts of it.
Turkey will not "gain territory". There will be
no Turkish "security corridor". The Kurdish
civilians in Kobani, Ras al Ain and Qamishli areas
will not go anywhere. The Turks will not touch those
Kurdish majority areas because they are, or soon
will be, under control of the Syrian government and
The picture, taken yesterday, shows the
Syrian-Turkish border crossing north of Kobani. The
Syrian army took control of it and raised the Syrian
flag. There are no longer any Kurdish forces there
that could threaten Turkey.
The Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu
confirmed that Turkey agrees with the Syrian
Russia "promised that the PKK or YPG will not be
on the other side of the border," Cavusoglu said
in an interview with the BBC. "If
Russia, accompanied by the Syrian army, removes
YPG elements from the region, we will not oppose
Even partisan Syrians opposed to its government
recognize the ploy:
Rami Jarrah @RamiJarrah -
12:53 UTC · Oct 17, 2019
Turkey’s foreign minister once again reiterates
that if Russia and the Syrian regime take over
border areas they will not object, as long as
the PYD are expelled.
This has to be the easiest land grab opportunity
Assad has had since the war started.
have been planned all along. The Turkish
invasion in northeast Syria
was designed to give Trump a reason to withdraw
U.S. troops. It was designed to push the Kurdish
forces to finally submit to the Syrian government.
Behind the scene Russia had already organized the
replacement of the Kurdish forces with Syrian
government troops. It has
coordinated the Syrian army moves with the U.S.
military. Turkey had agreed that Syrian government
control would be sufficient to alleviate its concern
about a Kurdish guerilla and a Kurdish proto-state
at its border. Any further Turkish invasion of Syria
is thereby unnecessary.
The plan has everyone winning. Turkey will be
free of a Kurdish threat. Syria regains its
territory. The U.S. can leave without further
trouble. Russia and Iran gain standing. The Kurds
get taken care of.
The 'ceasefire' and the retreat of the armed
Kurdish groups from the border, which is claimed to
negotiated yesterday between Pence and Erdogan,
had already been decided on before the U.S.
announced its withdrawal from Syria.
As veteran reporter Elijah Magnier
wrote yesterday, before the Turkish-U.S.
Assad trusts that Russia will succeed in halting
the Turkish advance and reduce its consequences,
perhaps by asking the Kurds to pull back to a 30
km distance from the Turkish borders to satisfy
President Erdogan’s anxiety. That could also fit
the Turkish-Syrian 1998 Adana agreement (5 km
buffer zone rather than 30 km) and offer
tranquillity to all parties involved. Turkey
wants to make sure the Kurdish YPG, the PKK
Syrian branch, is disarmed and contained.
Nothing seems difficult for Russia to manage,
particularly when the most difficult objective
has already been graciously offered: the US
What Magnier describes is exactly what Pence and
Erdogan agreed upon after he wrote it because it was
- all along - part of the larger common plan.
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump -
20:13 UTC · Oct 17, 2019
This is a great day for civilization. I am proud
of the United States for sticking by me in
following a necessary, but somewhat
unconventional, path. People have been trying to
make this “Deal” for many years. Millions of
lives will be saved. Congratulations to ALL!
The question is now if the U.S. will stick to the
deal or if the pressure on President Trump will get
so heavy that he needs to retreat from the common
deal. The U.S. must move ALL its troops out of
northeast Syria for the plot to succeed. Any
residual U.S. force, even an unsustainable small
one, will make the situation much more complicate.
That the U.S. media and pundits completely
misread the situation is a symptom of a wider
failure. As Anatol Lieven
describes the mess of U.S. Middle Eastern
This pattern has its roots in the decay of the
US political system and political establishment
at home, including the power of lobbies and
their money over US policy in key areas; the
retreat of area studies in academia and think
tanks, leading to sheer ignorance of some of the
key countries with which the USA has to deal;
the self-obsession, self-satisfaction and
ideological megalomania that in every dispute
leads so much of the US establishment and media
to cast the USA as a force of absolute good, and
its opponents as absolutely evil; and the
failure – linked to these three syndromes – to
identify vital and secondary interests and
choose between them ..
Only a few pundits in the U.S. recognize reality.
The bottom line: The solution to the
situation in Syria is to acknowledge Assad’s
victory and work with the other interested
parties to stabilize the situation there.
Unfortunately, that sensible if unsavory
approach is anathema to the foreign-policy
“Blob”—Democrats and Republicans alike—and its
members are marshaling the usual tired arguments
to explain why it’s all Trump’s fault and the
United States should never have withdrawn a
I am confident for now that the blob will be held
off by Trump and that the Win4 plan will
succeed. Erdogan will soon travel to Russia to
discuss the next steps towards peace in Syria. The
talks will be about a common plan to liberate the
Jihadi controlled governorate of Idleb. That step
may require a summit between the Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad and Erdogan which Russia and Iran
will help to facilitate.
With the U.S. removed from the Syria scenario
such steps towards peace will now be much easier.
This article was originally published by "Moon
Of Alabama"- -
Do you agree or disagree? Post
your comment here
Note To ICH Community
We ask that you assist us in
dissemination of the article published by
ICH to your social media accounts and post
links to the article from other websites.
Thank you for your support.
Peace and joy