system failure will give rise to new economy
Covid-19 driven collapse of global supply chains,
demand and mobility will painfully spawn next great
tech-led economic models
By Pepe Escobar
April 12, 2020 "Information
Clearing House" - Nobody, anywhere, could
have predicted what we are now witnessing: in a
matter of only a few weeks the accumulated collapse
of global supply chains, aggregate demand,
consumption, investment, exports, mobility.
Nobody is betting on an L-shaped recovery anymore
– not to mention a V-shaped one. Any projection of
global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 gets
into falling-off-a-cliff territory.
In industrialized economies, where roughly 70% of
the workforce is in services, countless businesses
in myriad industries will fail in a rolling
financial collapse that will eclipse the Great
That spans the whole spectrum of possibly 47
million US workers soon to be laid off – with the
unemployment rate skyrocketing to 32% – all the way
to Oxfam’s warning that by the time the pandemic is
over half of the world’s population of 7.8 billion
people could be living in poverty.
According to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO)
most optimistic 2020 scenario – certainly to become
outdated before the end of Spring – global trade
would shrink by 13%.
A more realistic and gloomier WTO scenario
sees global trade plunging by 32%.
What we are witnessing is not only a massive
globalization short circuit: it’s a cerebral shock
extended to three billion hyperconnected,
simultaneously confined people. Their bodies may be
blocked, but they are electromagnetic beings and
their brains keep working – with possible,
unforeseen political and other consequences.
Soon we will be facing three major, interlocking
debates: the management (in many cases appalling) of
the crisis; the search for future models; and the
reconfiguration of the world-system.
This is just a first approach in what should be
seen as a do-or-die cognitive competition.